From $2 K Dreams to $1.4 K Reality
In two turbulent weeks ETH plunged almost 30 %, falling from just under $2,000 to sub‑$1,400 before clawing back to the $1,600 band. The drop erased spring gains and shoved price beneath every major moving average, including the 21‑day line that has capped rallies since February.
Technicals Say Caution—But Watch $1,670
All three key EMAs (21‑, 50‑, 200‑day) still loom overhead, and RSI sits in neutral. Even so, analyst Ted Pillows claims a daily close above $1,670 could fire a run to $2 K, mirroring April’s breakout. Until reclaimed, expect chop.
Macro Cross‑Winds Are Still Blowing
Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that Trump’s expanded tariffs may stoke inflation, reducing odds of near‑term rate cuts. “Higher for longer” rates typically weigh on risk assets—crypto included—leaving ETH under macro pressure.
On‑Chain Metrics Paint a Bargain
Pseudonymous analyst Mister Crypto notes ETH now trades below its realized price—levels that historically flag solid accumulation zones. Ethereum still commands the largest DeFi TVL, far ahead of Solana or Tron, reinforcing network stickiness.
Policy Tailwinds: D.C. Favors Ether
With the Trump administration openly pro‑crypto—and Trump family wallets rumored to hold ETH—regulatory risk looks muted. Should the Fed reopen liquidity taps later in 2025, policy support could amplify any ETH recovery.
Liquidity Cycle = Alt‑Season Playbook
Past “alt‑seasons” followed aggressive central‑bank easing. Analysts expect a repeat: first recession fears, then rate cuts/QE, then a surge led by ETH. Until that liquidity pivot, slow accumulation beats high leverage.
Strategy Zone: Accumulate Above $1,550
Key support sits at $1,550‑$1,600. Lose that and $1,350 (2024 low) beckons. Flip $1,670 on volume and targets shift to $1,900‑$2,000. Long‑timers seeking cycle highs above $5 K may see current prices as multi‑year value.
Higher‑Beta Side Bets
Fans of torque can eye Solana (SOL)—often trip‑levered to macro relief—and newcomer Solaxy (SOLX), a SOL‑L2 that has raised $30 M in presale.
Bottom Line
ETH’s chart still leans bearish, but cheap valuations, entrenched DeFi dominance, and potential policy tailwinds hint at a base forming. Patience, disciplined buys near support, and constant macro vigilance remain the smartest play.
