Gold prices are witnessing heightened volatility as global geopolitical tensions ease slightly following Donald Trump’s attempts to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, Trump’s announcement of a temporary suspension of new tariffs has calmed traditional markets, reducing immediate safe-haven demand for gold. This shift has created a clear pullback in gold prices, which have already retraced about 2,000 points from recent highs.
As markets recalibrate, the critical question now is whether gold will extend its retracement by another 1,000 points and test the $3200 support level this week. This article provides an in-depth outlook on the XAUUSD price action from April 28th to May 2nd, including essential support and resistance zones for traders to watch closely.
Economic Events That Could Steer Gold’s Next Move
The upcoming week promises several key U.S. economic data releases that could heavily influence XAUUSD dynamics. Tuesday will see the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data, which acts as a barometer of labor market strength. A surge in job openings would likely boost the U.S. dollar and exert downside pressure on gold, while a decline would be supportive for the precious metal.
Attention will then shift to Wednesday’s release of the Advance GDP figures and the Employment Cost Index. Robust GDP numbers could reinforce expectations for continued Fed hawkishness, potentially weighing further on gold. However, a spike in employment costs could reignite inflation fears, possibly rekindling safe-haven flows into gold.
Thursday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release will offer additional clues about the health of the U.S. economy. A weaker PMI print could favor gold by reducing the probability of future interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the weekly unemployment claims figure will also serve as a litmus test for the broader labor market’s resilience.
Finally, Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will likely be the most significant driver for gold. A stronger-than-expected jobs number could intensify gold’s downside correction, while any evidence of labor market weakness could revive buying interest in the metal.
Rising Geopolitical Risks Could Offset Bearish Pressure
Although progress is reportedly being made in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, another alarming flashpoint is emerging between India and Pakistan. After a tragic incident in Kashmir that resulted in the deaths of 26 civilians, both nations have escalated military activity along their shared border.
Given that Indian households collectively possess over 25,000 tonnes of gold—more than all but the largest central banks—the potential for regional instability could drive substantial gold demand domestically. This factor could offer strong counterbalance to any downside pressure caused by easing tensions elsewhere, further complicating the gold outlook in the weeks ahead.
High Timeframe Technical Analysis: Gold’s Bearish Structure Strengthens
Despite maintaining a fundamentally bullish long-term backdrop, gold’s technical charts hint at a deeper retracement before bulls regain full control. The latest weekly candlestick pattern closed bearish, suggesting momentum is now favoring sellers at least temporarily.
From a Fibonacci retracement perspective, gold already bounced off the 0.236 retracement level last week, but bears now eye the deeper 0.382 retracement around $3154.78. If this key zone is breached, a larger correction could unfold, dragging prices closer to $3000 in coming sessions.
Forecasting XAUUSD for April 28th to May 2nd
Zooming into lower timeframes, key liquidity zones are beginning to form. The immediate buy zone lies between $3247 and $3193, where technical confluence including a point of control (POC) around $3226 could act as a springboard for a sharp bullish rebound of 200–500 points.
If gold slices through this support region, the next major defense for bulls will be between $3165 and $3124, where 4-hour timeframe structures such as breaker blocks and Fair Value Gaps (FVG) align. A breach below $3124 would be a red flag, likely inviting a sell-off toward the $3009 support area.
On the flip side, potential selling zones lie between $3342 and $3353. This bearish order block becomes even more critical if gold fails to reclaim $3260 on the 1-hour timeframe, cementing bearish sentiment and offering short opportunities.
Strategic Trading Outlook and Investment Insights
Given these dynamics, traders should prioritize long positions near higher timeframe supports while considering tactical shorts around lower timeframe resistances. Buying opportunities look promising around $3245 and $3165, while shorting setups become attractive near $3342–$3353.
In summary, while short-term volatility threatens deeper corrections, gold’s macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop remains supportive for higher prices over the medium term. Flexibility and close monitoring of key levels will be essential as gold navigates its next major directional move.
