Bitcoin’s latest rally has pushed over 85% of its holders into profit, a level that historically precedes heightened market euphoria—and potentially, a market top. Analysts are now closely monitoring this critical threshold as the leading cryptocurrency trades just below $95,000, approaching a zone that has signaled corrections in previous cycles.
According to on-chain analysis published by CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, the “supply in profit” metric—a measure of how many BTC holders are above their cost basis—has climbed from 75% to 85% in recent weeks. While this supports bullish sentiment, it also edges the market closer to overheated territory, where sharp pullbacks have historically followed.
“A high percentage of holders in profit isn’t inherently bearish, but it becomes dangerous as sentiment turns euphoric,” Darkfost explained.
Historically, when 90% of Bitcoin supply is in profit, it has often coincided with price peaks, followed by periods of correction. In contrast, bear market bottoms have shown profit levels as low as 45–50%, marking capitulation zones.
Mixed Signals in Blockchain and Derivatives Data
While profit-taking appears to be increasing, other on-chain and market signals present a mixed picture:
- Daily Active Addresses have crossed 800,000, indicating renewed engagement, though still below prior bull market peaks (1.2 million in 2021).
- Open interest in Bitcoin options has surged by $1 billion, while Ethereum’s OI climbed by $150 million. However, implied volatility is falling—suggesting traders expect lower price swings.
- On Derive.xyz, a 73% call bias among BTC options buyers, and over 80% call premium activity for ETH, signals aggressive bullish positioning.
Still, CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk points to a concerning trend: 30-day Demand Momentum remains deeply negative, indicating that short-term holders are distributing faster than long-term holders are accumulating.
Demand Momentum: -483,860 BTC
30-Day SMA: -310,700 BTC
This pattern typically surfaces in late-stage rallies, where speculative buyers drive prices, but long-term confidence wanes.
Market Structure Remains Strong, But Risks Linger
Technically, Bitcoin remains within a solid structure. Key resistance stands near $98,000, with support at $85,000–$87,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67 suggests near-overbought conditions, while Stochastic RSI signals slowing momentum. MACD readings and price momentum, however, remain supportive.
With institutional inflows supporting price stability, Bitcoin may yet push toward $100K—but rising speculation, weakening demand from long-term holders, and cooling volatility point to a possible consolidation or pullback in the near term.
