Solana’s price rally has stalled at a crucial technical confluence — and the next few days could determine whether a correction or continuation takes place.
After rebounding from sub-$100 support, Solana (SOL) has rallied into one of its most important resistance zones on the high time frame. This area, stacked with technical confluences, may serve as a decisive turning point. While the bounce injected some short-term optimism, the current stall near $149 raises concerns about follow-through strength.
Confluence Builds at $149 — But Bulls Face Headwinds
The price of SOL has reached a high-volume node near $149, which is the point of control (POC) for all trading activity since the start of 2024. This price zone represents a major area of interest where significant positioning has occurred, acting as both magnet and barrier.
Importantly, this level coincides with the anchored VWAP from the yearly open and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the recent move — creating a strong cluster of resistance factors.
Volume Weakness Signals Waning Momentum
While Solana’s rebound from below $100 drew fresh attention, the lack of volume on the recent upswing raises a red flag. Price has climbed, but without increasing participation — typically a sign that the move lacks conviction.
So far, there’s no clean breakout above the POC. The rally has tapped the zone and retreated, suggesting potential exhaustion. Shorter time frames have already begun to roll over, and unless bulls respond with volume and urgency, this may mark the top of a relief rally, not the start of a new trend.
Downside Targets: $113 and $100 in Focus
Should the rejection from $149 hold, the next probable support level is around $113, the value area low of the 2024 range. This level has acted as support in the past and could offer a temporary cushion.
If $113 fails, the spotlight shifts back to the psychological and technical anchor at $100. This area has previously served as a launchpad, but a second test under weaker conditions could expose SOL to deeper downside, potentially setting a new local low.
Invalidation: $149 Breakout Could Flip Bias
The bearish outlook would be invalidated by a clear reclaim of $149 followed by consolidation above the zone. This would flip resistance into support and open the path toward the range high near $209, offering bulls a chance to reassert control.
“Until $149 is reclaimed convincingly, every bounce looks reactive — not trend-defining,” noted a technical analyst from CryptoQuant.
Outlook: Trend Cautiously Bearish, Pending Key Confirmation
As long as Solana trades below the $149 resistance, the risk of retracement remains high. The current structure leans neutral-to-bearish, with volume divergence and rejection behavior weighing on the bullish case.
Traders should remain cautious, especially if price continues to drift lower on decreasing volume. Only a confirmed breakout with strong volume can shift the narrative toward a sustainable upside.
